Alastair William Gillespie (Minister of Industry, Trade and Commerce)
Liberal
Mr. Gillespie:
I would like, Mr. Speaker, in the time at my disposal to direct my remarks to the problems and opportunities that prevail in international trade and their effect on Canada's industries. Very clearly, there are important implications in the efforts of countries to deal with inflation while encouraging economic growth. Equally challenging is the problem of adjusting to rapidly changing international trade payments and patterns caused by price changes, particularly for oil. Of course, as all hon. members are aware, there is great need to quickly come to grips with the food needs of the world. If I were to try to put the problems facing us in a few words, I would say they are problems of political will and of confidence.
The international trading system is under enormous and conflicting pressures brought on primarily by balance of payments problems and by inflation which has shaken confidence in some quarters. This is why the individual and collective will of the trading nations to keep the system going is so important at this time. The difficulties of managing balance of payments adjustments are considerable and I do not want to underestimate them, but I am encouraged that governments of major trading countries are concerned about the risks of unilateral action designed to restrict imports to safeguard their balance of payments in the face of high energy bills. I believe there is an earnest desire on all sides, out of self-interest if nothing else, to co-operate in solving this problem. It is reflected, for example, in the trade pledge adopted last June by members of the OECD. With this pledge, governments undertook a political commitment against introducing import restrictions for balance of payments reasons.
Moreover, much effort is being devoted to finding political and economic ways and means of recycling earnings of the oil exporters to countries whose payments positions have been jeopardized by the energy crisis. The energy problem has demonstrated in a stark way how interdependent are the trading nations of the world. At a time of difficulty, perhaps it is worth recording that world trade has expanded many times since the Second World War and that as citizens of a major trading country we are richer for it. In large measure, this growth stems from the six rounds of tariff-cutting negotiations carried out under GATT auspices since 1947. We are now preparing for the seventh round-the Tokyo round. In this round we shall be seeking easier access abroad for more of our manufactured goods so as to enable a higher degree of processing of our natural resources in Canada before they are exported.
November 26, 1974
The Budget-Mr. Gillespie
Foreign trade barriers, both tariff and non-tariff, are a major impediment to further processing in Canada. We look to these multilateral trade negotiations as the most effective way or removing or reducing these barriers. To this end, we are promoting a "sector approach" in the context of GATT negotiations, advocating a uniform or zero tariff for all steps of processing of, say, a mineral up to its fabricated state-from the ore to the beneficiated ore, to the smeltered metal to the refined metal, to the fabricated metal products; the whole chain of further processing.
In preparing our position for the GATT conference we have been fully aware of the interests of the provinces. Over a year ago I invited the provinces to submit their views on what they would like us to obtain from the negotiations and what they would be prepared to concede. I have held a number of meetings with my provincial counterparts to discuss these questions. A number of useful meetings between federal and provincial officials have also been held. Some provinces have already submitted their views and these will be most helpful to the Canadian negotiators. I should like to take this opportunity to invite those who have not already done so to submit their views. I hope the Canadian negotiators will shortly be able to move into the intensive phase of these discussions which have been delayed pending the obtaining of the needed negotiating mandates by the United States and the EEC.
We have, of course, all been watching with considerable interest the progress, or lack of it, of the U.S. trade reform bill through Congress. The mandate contained in this bill is a vital ingredient for getting on quickly with the new round of trade negotiations. If an effective negotiating mandate is not obtained by the U.S. administration, it will be a serious setback to international trade liberalization. United States leadership is essential if we are to make effective progress at this time. In addition, this is not the time for countries to allow the international trading community to slip back into the dog-eat-dog policies of the 1930s. We should play our part in trying to strengthen international co-operation. I am hopeful the need for an effective mandate will be recognized and pursued urgently to ensure against a serious deterioration in the international trading environment, for time is running out.
Against this background, let us take a look at Canada's current trading picture and make some projections of what we may expect by way of international trade over the next 12 months and even beyond. For the first ten months of 1974, the value of our exports is up by 28 per cent, compared to the same period in 1973. Thus, for the whole of 1974 I now expect that our exports will total more than $31 billion. To put it in another way, I expect that exports will increase by about $6.5 billion over the figure for 1973, compared with a gain of something more than $5 billion from 1972 to 1973. Some may find this surprising, especially in a year when our major trading partners, the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan, have experienced an economic downturn. The increase in our exports has taken place, of course, because Canada is fortunate enough to be a major exporter of a number of commodities which are in short supply and for which prices have risen sharply in the past year. These include wheat, copper and zinc as well as crude petroleum, with
regard to which the collective action of the OPEC countries has resulted in even larger price increases.
Although the physical volume of exports of these commodities has been lower in 1974, increases in price have more than offset decreases in volume. The commodities I mentioned have, therefore, made a major contribution to the increase in the value of Canada's exports in 1974. It is largely because of the decline in the physical volume of those commodities, including lumber, that the index of the volume of Canada's total exports has declined in 1974. For the first ten months of 1974 this decline amounted to about 6 per cent, compared with the 1973 levels, and I expect that the decline for the year as a whole will also amount to about 6 per cent. We are aware, too, that the physical volume of our exports of automotive goods has been affected by the drastic slowdown in the United States auto market. A similar decline in housing construction in the United States and a slowdown in Canada have caused a serious problem in Canada's lumber industry.
The budget contains a number of important measures which should help to increase market demand in Canada. I refer particularly to the reduction of the sales tax on building and construction materials from 11 per cent to 5 per cent. There are already indications that this is being reflected in lower average housing costs. Second, there is the change in the treatment of capital cost allowances on new, multi-unit residential buildings put up for rent. Parenthetically, I might mention another helpful measure-the provision for a $500 cash grant to individuals who purchase for the first time new, moderately priced housing units.
Returning to the budget, I hope, too, to see more developed land coming on to the market because we have eliminated the privilege of taxpayers to charge against income the carrying costs on land awaiting development. There is, also, the provision for capital cost allowances at 15 per cent to firms who hold certain types of timber limits and/or licences to cut timber. We all recognize that transportation is a major cost factor in forest-based industries. Thus, the complete elimination of the 12 per cent sales tax from a wide range of transportation equipment, including large trucks, will be felt not only in forest-based industries but also in downstream industries, including residential construction.
My department is carrying on a vigorous export promotion program. As a matter of fact, a timber trade mission returns from the Middle East tomorrow and I am optimistic about what it will have to report. Timber exports to the Middle East, by the way, increased from just $75,000 for all of 1972 to more than $3.5 million for the first six months of this year. I believe this is an illustration of what aggressive promotion can accomplish. We found a new timber market in Cuba which took nearly $3 million worth of lumber in the first six months of this year alone. They imported none at all from us in 1972 or 1973.
We have also been promoting other Canadian export interests. All hon. members are aware that I led trade missions to Mexico, the Middle East countries, and Brazil this year, and I can assure them that in every country we were impressed by the great interest in Canada and in the
November 26, 1974
desire to co-operate with Canada in the development of closer trade and economic relations.
As a result of my visit to Iran in April, for example, it has been agreed to conclude a trade agreement with that country to facilitate the flow of goods from both sides. It is apparent that a wide scope exists for a wide exchange of products, the employment of Canadian expertise, the establishment of joint ventures and other forms of economic and technical co-operation between the two countries. In Brazil, just last month, I was further convinced that aggressive marketing by Canadian entrepreneurs can and will pay off. Brazil itself presents myriad opportunities. This year we have already trebled our trade with Brazil, on a year to year basis, over last year. Our increase in exports to Brazil this year will be of the order of $200 million. These opportunities in Brazil range all the way from increasing our current exports to establishing new, joint ventures with Brazilian partners.
I submit that there is sufficient international demand to give the Canadian economy a needed stimulus and to provide the confidence that market opportunities can indeed be captured by an aggressive Canadian business community. At the same time, however, I have been impressed by the need for flexibility in our trading strategies. In certain developing countries, for example, I can see direct participation in their industrial development as clearly the best way to strengthen our trade and economic relations. I am encouraging Canadian business interests to look at the opportunities provided by joint ventures. I also plan to continue the market development program that I have initiated through trade missions to ensure that Canada does not lose out on the major, new international trade and economic opportunities.
As for next year, we must be realistic. We must recognize that Canada cannot much longer escape the impact of continuing economic stagnation in our trading partners. It looks as if the rest of the industrialized world will experience marginal economic growth next year, particularly during the first half of the year. This means that recovery, in physical volume, of our exports will be slow in 1975, certainly in the first half of the year. In spite of that, however, we should still obtain a moderate increase in total value of exports.
Over the longer run, I am optimistic. Canada has been steadily building an internationally recognized and internationally competitive industrial base. It has a strong supporting institution in the Export Development Corporation and has a variety of programs offered by the Department of Industry, Trade and Commerce. What is essential to our export outlook at this time, in view of the slowdown abroad that I have noted, is that Canadian entrepreneurs keep up the momentum of recent years even though in the short run it may not appear to be in their immediate interest. But over the long run it will clearly be in their interest and it will be in the interest of Canada. I can assure them and Canadians generally that we will be doing our part to assist them.
Subtopic: THE BUDGET
Sub-subtopic: FINANCIAL STATEMENT OF THE MINISTER OF FINANCE