May 4, 1972

LABOUR CONDITIONS

FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION

NDP

David Lewis

New Democratic Party

Mr. David Lewis (York South):

My question is directed to the Minister of Finance, Mr. Speaker. I gave him notice of the subject matter. Can he inform the House whether his

department has received as yet the quarterly unemployment forecast from the University of Toronto Institute for the Quantitative Analysis of Social and Economic Policy, dated April 26, 1972, which projects seasonally adjusted levels of unemployment in excess of 6 per cent to the end of 1973, and unemployment as high as 6.3 per cent-

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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IND

Lucien Lamoureux (Speaker of the House of Commons)

Independent

Mr. Speaker:

Order, please. The hon. member knows that the purpose of a question is not to convey information but rather to seek information. I would think that perhaps the first part of the hon. member's question, for the time being anyway, might be to the point and the minister might be allowed to reply to that part of the hon. member's question.

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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NDP

David Lewis

New Democratic Party

Mr. Lewis:

I was almost finished, Mr. Speaker.

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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?

Some hon. Members:

Oh, oh!

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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IND

Lucien Lamoureux (Speaker of the House of Commons)

Independent

Mr. Speaker:

The hon. member might allow the minister to reply to his question. If he seeks further information he may ask a supplementary question.

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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LIB

John Napier Turner (Minister of Finance)

Liberal

Hon. John N. Turner (Minister of Finance):

Mr. Speaker, I did not know whether the hon. member was finished. I rather thought he was.

I want to thank the hon. gentleman for giving me notice of his question. Unfortunately I just received it when I came into the House. Recently my department received this forecast, which I understand is a preliminary forecast only. It is now being studied by officials in my department. I might say to the hon. member that we constantly receive the results of a variety of forecasts and we are continually analysing and comparing them with our own economic model. Whatever forecasts I give, I will give on Monday night.

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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NDP

David Lewis

New Democratic Party

Mr. Lewis:

In view of the level of unemployment forecast for 1973 as I have indicated and the level of 6.3 per cent for the last quarter of this year forecast by the institute, do these forecasts vary significantly from the forecasts made in his own department regarding unemployment levels in 1972 and 1973?

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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LIB

John Napier Turner (Minister of Finance)

Liberal

Mr. Turner (Ottawa-Carleton):

Mr. Speaker, forecasting depends on the assumptions you make, and I should like to compare those assumptions with our own before giving an answer to the hon. member's question. But it is something I might deal with.

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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NDP

Stanley Howard Knowles (N.D.P. House Leader; Whip of the N.D.P.)

New Democratic Party

Mr. Knowles (Winnipeg North Centre):

Are you assuming an election?

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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NDP

David Lewis

New Democratic Party

Mr. Lewis:

May I ask the minister a question arising out of the fact that on a number of occasions he has said he is not in the business of forecasting, which I presume also applies to the department that advises him. If that is the case, what exactly is the forecasting unit numbering some 36 people in his department doing and how much is it costing the taxpayers to have a forecasting unit that does not forecast?

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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IND

Lucien Lamoureux (Speaker of the House of Commons)

Independent

Mr. Speaker:

Order, please. I suggest that that is argument. If the hon. member is actually seeking this information, the question might be placed on the order paper.

May 4, 1972

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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NDP

David Lewis

New Democratic Party

Mr. Lewis:

I have a further short supplementary question, Mr. Speaker. Do I gather from the minister's answer that he has made an undertaking to the House that in his budget he will deal with forecasts of the levels of unemployment in 1972 and 1973 and that since he refused to deal with my questions now he will definitely deal with them in his budget speech? Is that an undertaking to the House?

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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LIB

John Napier Turner (Minister of Finance)

Liberal

Mr. Turner (Ottawa-Carleton):

I will talk about the art of forecasting on Monday night.

Topic:   LABOUR CONDITIONS
Subtopic:   FORECAST OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS TO END OF 1973 BY UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO INSTITUTE-GOVERNMENT POSITION
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UNEMPLOYMENT IN ATLANTIC PROVINCES-ACTION IN LIGHT OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT FORECASTS

PC

Robert Lorne Stanfield (Leader of the Official Opposition)

Progressive Conservative

Hon. Robert L. Stanfield (Leader of the Opposition):

Mr. Speaker, I have a supplementary question for the Minister of Regional Economic Expansion who no doubt is familiar with the alarm expressed by APEC regarding the unemployment outlook in the Atlantic provinces. Is he aware of the disappointing capital investment forecasts to which APEC has drawn attention, and does he propose to take any action in this regard?

Topic:   UNEMPLOYMENT IN ATLANTIC PROVINCES-ACTION IN LIGHT OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT FORECASTS
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LIB

Jean Marchand (Minister of Regional Economic Expansion)

Liberal

Hon. lean Marchand (Minister of Regional Economic Expansion):

I think that the House will be glad to learn that Michelin is expanding, as it has announced today, and is going to create about 1,200 new jobs.

Topic:   UNEMPLOYMENT IN ATLANTIC PROVINCES-ACTION IN LIGHT OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT FORECASTS
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?

Some hon. Members:

Hear, hear!

Topic:   UNEMPLOYMENT IN ATLANTIC PROVINCES-ACTION IN LIGHT OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT FORECASTS
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PC

Donald MacInnis

Progressive Conservative

Mr. Donald Maclnnis (Cape Breton-East Richmond):

Mr. Speaker, I have a supplementary to a previous question with respect to the 1,200 jobs referred to by the Minister of Regional Economic Expansion. Two years ago he referred to 1,200 miners being employed in a colliery that will not be open for another two years. Are those the same 1,200 he is talking about now?

Topic:   UNEMPLOYMENT IN ATLANTIC PROVINCES-ACTION IN LIGHT OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT FORECASTS
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May 4, 1972